Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.047624 0.054437 0.061938 0.070816 0.081051 0.092494 0.106280
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.037327 0.046630 0.057866 0.072481 0.091055 0.113962 0.144490
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.030834 0.040886 0.053812 0.071739 0.096101 0.128256 0.174248
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.027490 0.038273 0.052869 0.074213 0.104878 0.147715 0.212746
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.023445 0.033993 0.048894 0.071675 0.105977 0.156257 0.236567
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.020625 0.031001 0.046229 0.070456 0.108506 0.166758 0.264198
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.017939 0.027839 0.042869 0.067643 0.108051 0.172380 0.284571
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.016926 0.027097 0.043055 0.070292 0.116399 0.192690 0.331370
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.016028 0.026412 0.043216 0.072845 0.124785 0.213916 0.382429
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.015223 0.025777 0.043358 0.075325 0.133248 0.236151 0.438136
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.014004 0.024304 0.041916 0.074847 0.136345 0.249114 0.478227
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.013053 0.023193 0.040974 0.075128 0.140795 0.264963 0.525831
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.012073 0.021958 0.039730 0.074793 0.144198 0.279532 0.573603
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.011504 0.021422 0.039713 0.076795 0.152407 0.304554 0.646807
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.010637 0.020237 0.038352 0.076000 0.154873 0.318220 0.697549
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.010261 0.019956 0.038689 0.078630 0.164688 0.348329 0.789173
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.009333 0.018495 0.036560 0.075932 0.162835 0.353123 0.823229
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.008645 0.017453 0.035170 0.074637 0.163861 0.364327 0.874010
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.007859 0.016138 0.033100 0.071647 0.160738 0.365714 0.900912
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.007677 0.016071 0.033632 0.074462 0.171249 0.400080 1.016143
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.007491 0.015978 0.034099 0.077176 0.181835 0.435957 1.140978
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.007306 0.015869 0.034515 0.079812 0.192544 0.473504 1.276337
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.006891 0.015211 0.033646 0.079304 0.195401 0.491579 1.360625